Economic growth has long been treated as a marker of success, stability and progress. Yet growing evidence shows that the way economies currently grow continues to place significant pressure on the climate, raising difficult questions about whether rising prosperity can truly be separated from rising emissions.
Recent analysis highlights that, despite decades of climate negotiations and technological advances, global economic growth remains closely linked to increased energy use and carbon emissions. As countries expand production, consumption and infrastructure, demand for fossil fuels often rises in parallel, particularly in sectors such as transport, construction and heavy industry. While some high-income economies have reduced emissions growth relative to GDP, these gains have not yet been sufficient to offset global trends.
This challenge sits at the heart of international climate debates led by bodies such as the United Nations. On the one hand, economic growth is seen as essential for reducing poverty, funding public services and improving living standards. On the other, continued growth based on high resource use risks pushing global temperatures beyond agreed climate targets.big3.jpg
Supporters of “green growth” argue that innovation, clean energy and efficiency gains can allow economies to grow while emissions fall. Renewable energy, electrification and digitalisation have already reduced emissions intensity in some regions. However, critics point out that these improvements are often outweighed by increased overall consumption, a phenomenon known as the rebound effect.
As a result, a growing number of economists and policymakers are questioning whether GDP alone should remain the primary measure of progress. Alternatives that place greater emphasis on well-being, environmental health and social outcomes are gaining attention, particularly in the context of climate limits and planetary boundaries.
The debate over economic growth and climate change is no longer theoretical. As extreme weather events, heatwaves and resource shortages become more frequent, the costs of carbon-intensive growth are becoming increasingly visible. The central question facing governments is not whether economies should develop, but how to redesign economic systems so that prosperity no longer comes at the expense of a stable climate.
